The only win is a draw

Everyone's sure that the civil war will be won soon. After all, we've abrogated the ceasefire, been bombed multiple times, bombed them multiple times, and generally done what the man on the street wants done. Well at least the man on the street who doesn't want to physically fight, but is very willing to allow others to go and die for his sorry ass.

But, is this the optimal solution? After all, we're fighting for peace, right?

But the question is, as always, will winning the war, bring peace? We're all hoping that it will. But are we really going to win in the long term?

The problem with winning the war, is that the victors begin to believe that because they won, whatever they did was right and justified. Witness the case of Bomber (sometimes called Butcher) Harris. His firebombing of Dresden, led to the death of 25,000 to 35,000 civillians. In the same way, consider the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. If this were done by the Germans it would be considered a war crime. But, since they were done by the victors, they were necessary.

In the same way, we will also face the justification of all the massacres and the bombings in the war, and all the actions that led up to it. And further, as the victors, we can now justify the return of any de facto racism against the Tamil people because, hey, we won.

It will become difficult for Tamils in the Sinhalese dominated areas. We will see a rise in thuggery as more and more soldiers are released from duty. We will see more rape cases as the occupying army goes further and further into formerly LTTE held territory.

This is not about the way the Sinhalese operate. It is the way an occupying army operates. This is the dark side of human nature.

And in the end what will we get? The feelings of anger and helplessness will create yet another Prabhakaran. We will see him less than 5 years after the LTTE is defeated. And he will be far more ruthless than the LTTE ever was.

On the other hand, if the LTTE manages, by some fluke, to win, we will face another scenario. The creation of Eelam will make it impossible for the Tamils to live in the south. In the same way that the partition of India happened, so will the partition of Sri Lanka. The hardest hit will be the Tamils in the south. Unable to live in the south, they will be forced into the new Eelam. And yet, they will be second-class citizens there too. After living in relative comfort in the south, they will be looked down on by their brethren in the north.

You had checkpoints? Big deal! We got bombed!!

Then the next Government that comes into power will do so on a manifesto of reuniting the country and we'll be back at war again.

So how do we win? Sometimes, the only winning move is not to play. We all have to work on the root causes of the problem, as well as trying to minimise the desire for revenge on both sides, Maybe something like the Truth and Reconciliation Commissions of post-apartheid South Africa. But first, we should all recognise that war can only take us so far. A lasting solution can only be found through dialogue.